Measuring systemic risk from textual Analysis: Evidence from Chinese Banks

Abstract

Systemic risk is often measured with the interconnection among listed banks. However, the systemic risk of small and medium-sized banks is rarely addressed due to a lack data. Thus, we build a network of 711 banks in China using the co-occurrence analysis with media reports data, and construct an index based on the negative news to measure the systemic risk. The interconnection among large banks is relatively stable in the context of market turmoil, while the one between small and medium-sized banks is characterized by a transition from centralization to decentralization. In contrast with large banks, small and medium-sized banks become the main driver of systemic risk in the banking sector after 2013. It is mainly due to a hike of interbank business of small and medium-sized banks and cross-region operations, which have strengthened the interconnections among small and medium-sized banks, and their interconnections with large banks.