On the uncertainties in stone armor stability

Abstract

The present research aims to investigate the uncertainties in the evaluation of stone armor stability. Data synthesis was achieved by collecting and homogenizing data from 4 distinct studies, considering the inherent variability of the original data. Established stability equations are then applied to the synthetized database to assess both the strengths and limitations of different approaches across deep, shallow, and very shallow water. The results indicate that while nearly all formulations perform well in deep water, some inadequacies emerge in shallow and very shallow water. To address these limitations, the stability equations were recalibrated using the new database, with a focus on error and uncertainty quantification. The refitted Etemad-Shahidi et al. (ES, 2020) and Modified ES (Scaravaglione et al., 2025) equations consistently demonstrate better predictive capability across all water depths. However, damage assessment reveals persistent uncertainties across all formulations, rendering the selection of a single equation inconclusive, mainly due to the high uncertainty of the available laboratory data. Further synthesizing and homogenizing require additional modeling given the varying modeling approaches, the non-homogenous nature of the parametric data, and the limited understanding possible of the detailed laboratory techniques and data analysis carried out.