Inconclusive evidence for a prospective effect of sense of coherence on subjective burden and mental health: A simulated reanalysis and comment on Gonçalves-Pereira et al. (2025)

Abstract

Based on findings from analyses with cross-lagged panel models, Gonçalves-Pereira et al. (2025) suggested causal effects of sense of coherence (SOC) on subjective burden, anxiety, and depression among family caregivers. Here, we simulated data to resemble the data used by Gonçalves-Pereira et al. We used triangulation and fitted complementary models to the simulated data and found contradicting increasing, decreasing, and null effects of initial sense of coherence on subsequent change in subjective burden and mental health. These divergent findings indicated that it is premature to assume causal effects of sense of coherence on subjective burden and mental health and the suggestions by Gonçalves-Pereira et al. in this regard can be challenged. It is important for researchers to be aware that correlations, including adjusted cross-lagged effects, do not prove causality in order not to overinterpret findings, something that appears to have happened to Gonçalves-Pereira et al. We recommend researchers to triangulate by fitting complementary models to their data in order to evaluate if analyzed data could be used to support contradicting conclusions, in which case the data should not be used to support any of those conclusions.