The global burden of inflammatory bowel disease: from 2025 to 2045

Abstract

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a global condition that progresses through four epidemiologic stages: emergence, acceleration in incidence, compounding prevalence and prevalence equilibrium. Early industrialized countries are currently in the compounding prevalence stage before transitioning to the prevalence equilibrium stage, with >1% of their populations expected to live with IBD within the next decade. Prevalence equilibrium can be modelled using a health–illness–death compartment framework and partial differential equations to predict prevalence to 2045. Meanwhile, newly industrialized countries are projected to shift from accelerated incidence with low prevalence to compounding prevalence over the next two decades. This Perspective explores the global evolution of IBD through these epidemiologic stages, presenting a framework for disease prevention and innovative health-care strategies to address the critical challenges the global IBD community will face over the next 20 years.