U.S. cancer deaths prevented due to survival improvements stratified by extent of disease, 2010-2019

Abstract

Background Progress against cancer mortality has been driven by primary prevention, early detection, and cancer treatment. We estimated the number of cancer deaths that were avoided due to stage-specific improvements in cancer survival among patients diagnosed in 2010-2019 followed through 2020. Methods We utilized cancer incidence data from 17 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) cancer registries during 2004-2019. We estimated the number of cancer deaths prevented due to cancer- and stage-specific survival improvements (based on SEER summary stage) as the observed minus expected number of cancer deaths through 2020. We calculated the expected number of cancer deaths from estimated cumulative incidence models setting the calendar year effect to 2009. Results During 2010-2019, there were 3,310,270 incident cancers and 966,733 cancer deaths through 2020 in SEER-17. Improvements in stage-specific cancer survival resulted in a 4.7% (95%CI -5.3%, -4.2%) decline in cancer deaths in females (22,874 fewer deaths) and a 4.4% (95%CI -4.9%, -3.9%) decline in males (23,198 fewer deaths) in SEER-17 regions, corresponding to approximately 173,900 fewer cancer deaths in the full U.S. population. The largest absolute declines were for lung and liver cancers, while the largest relative declines were observed for melanoma and leukemia. Cancer deaths prevented were not statistically significant for colorectal or prostate cancers. All statistical tests were two-sided. Conclusions Stage-specific survival gains, reflecting treatment advances and improved access to cancer treatment from 2010-2019, resulted in an estimated 173,900 fewer cancer deaths among US cancer patients diagnosed during this time period.