Scenarios for the deployment of automated vehicles in Europe

Abstract

The deployment of Automated Vehicles (AVs) is expected to address road transport externalities (e.g., safety, traffic, environmental impact, etc.). For this reason, a legal framework for their large-scale market introduction and deployment is currently being developed in the European Union. Despite the first steps towards road transport automation, the timeline for full automation and its potential economic benefits remains uncertain. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, it presents a methodological framework to determine deployment pathways of the five different levels of automation in EU27 + UK to 2050 under three scenarios (i.e., slow, medium baseline and fast) focusing on passenger vehicles. Second, it proposes an assessment of the economic impact of AVs through the calculation of the value-added. The method to define assumptions and uptake trajectories involves a comprehensive literature review, expert interviews, and a model to forecast the new registrations of different levels of automation. In this way, the interviews provided insights that complemented the literature and informed the design of assumptions and deployment trajectories. The added-value assessment shows additional economic activity due to the introduction of automated technologies in all uptake scenarios.