On the success of visa waiver policies: Post-pandemic evidence from China

Abstract

As the global tourism industry continues to outperform pre-pandemic records, understanding the role of regulatory frameworks in facilitating the revival of international travel is of paramount importance to the air transportation and tourism industry. Our research aims to uncover the extent to which visa-free access has accelerated the recovery of inbound travel to China, by utilizing a combination of time-series analysis and difference-in-difference (DiD) techniques. Visa-free policies contribute to average monthly increases in passenger volume/departure counts and decreases in fares from January 2022 to July 2024, which vary by connection level of 2019. Such policies have significant positive impacts on additional recovery rates of passenger volume/departure counts in medium-connection countries/regions compared with those in high-connection ones, with negative affects in low-connection ones. Moreover, single effects of visa-free policies on three indicators in most implemented countries are more significant than corresponding weighted effects. In addition to quantifying the effects of visa-free policies, this research provides novel managerial insights for policymakers and tourism stakeholders, highlighting the potential importance and ramifications of visa liberalization as a strategic tool for stimulating international tourism demand in the post-pandemic era.