Thousand cuts: a realistic route to decarbonise the UK cement and concrete sector by 2050

Abstract

To meet net-zero CO₂ targets by 2050, the United Kingdom (UK)’s cement and concrete sector must implement decarbonisation strategies of different readiness levels and effectiveness. These strategies have been presented thoroughly in UK and European Union decarbonisation roadmaps. However, it is challenging to predict, with confidence, whether the UK's 2050 net-zero targets are achievable. This study aims to balance the expectations placed on low-maturity (LM) and high-maturity (HM) strategies such as utilising a lower clinker factor and the use of carbon capture technologies respectively to determine a realistic route in which the UK can reach net-zero targets through a decomposition analysis of each strategy. The sector's carbon emissions were determined by performing a material flow analysis and life cycle assessment. The results showed that by 2050, 11 MtCO_2eq/yr is expected to be emitted in 2050 under the business-as-usual scenario. HM strategies have an abatement potential of 4.2 MtCO_2eq/yr, while LM strategies are expected to abate 3.4 MtCO_2eq/yr. However, LM strategies are limited by industry's willingness to shift from current practices, while the implementation of HM strategies are impeded by financial and resource constraints. Accordingly, it is improbable for the sector to meet UK net-zero carbon targets with confidence unless the yearly concrete demand is reduced by 40 %. To enable the maximum potential of reusing the UK's building stock, direct public incentives, shifts in economic models and policy frameworks are needed.