{"title":"Global burden of smoking-associated age-related macular degeneration: Spatiotemporal trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2040.","authors":"Pengcheng Hu, Ming He, Junyang Cai, Zequn Lin, Shiying Zheng, Zihao Zhuang, Jialing Liu, Luoming Huang","doi":"10.18332/tid/205665","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Smoking is a major modifiable risk factor for age-related macular degeneration (AMD); however, the long-term trends and sociodemographic disparities in its global burden remain insufficiently characterized. This study aimed to assess the evolving burden of smoking-associated AMD from 1990 to 2021 and project its trajectory to 2040.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database were used to extract smoking-associated AMD burden, measured by years lived with disability (YLDs) and age-standardized YLDs rate (ASYLDsR). Trends were stratified by sociodemographic index (SDI) and GBD super-regions, analyzed via estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2021, the global burden of smoking-associated AMD reached 58858 YLDs (a 47.1% increase from 1990), with an ASYLDsR of 2.47 per 100000 population. The burden in males significantly exceeded the female burden (45442 vs 13417 YLDs in 2021), with a widening disparity. YLDs peaked in the age group of 65-69 years (12528 cases), while ASYLDsR increased with age. East Asia had the highest cases (23248 cases, 39.5% of the global total), whereas Central Asia exhibited rising ASYLDsR. ARIMA projections estimated global YLDs to rise to 72574 (95% CI: 61319-83828) by 2040, with ASYLDsR declining to 1.54 per 100000 (95% CI: 0.90-2.17).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The burden of smoking-associated AMD demonstrates marked demographic and geographical heterogeneity. Aging populations drive rising absolute case numbers, while disparities in tobacco control policies contribute to regional divergence in ASYLDsR.</p>","PeriodicalId":23202,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Induced Diseases","volume":"23 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12247051/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Tobacco Induced Diseases","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.18332/tid/205665","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Introduction: Smoking is a major modifiable risk factor for age-related macular degeneration (AMD); however, the long-term trends and sociodemographic disparities in its global burden remain insufficiently characterized. This study aimed to assess the evolving burden of smoking-associated AMD from 1990 to 2021 and project its trajectory to 2040.
Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database were used to extract smoking-associated AMD burden, measured by years lived with disability (YLDs) and age-standardized YLDs rate (ASYLDsR). Trends were stratified by sociodemographic index (SDI) and GBD super-regions, analyzed via estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.
Results: In 2021, the global burden of smoking-associated AMD reached 58858 YLDs (a 47.1% increase from 1990), with an ASYLDsR of 2.47 per 100000 population. The burden in males significantly exceeded the female burden (45442 vs 13417 YLDs in 2021), with a widening disparity. YLDs peaked in the age group of 65-69 years (12528 cases), while ASYLDsR increased with age. East Asia had the highest cases (23248 cases, 39.5% of the global total), whereas Central Asia exhibited rising ASYLDsR. ARIMA projections estimated global YLDs to rise to 72574 (95% CI: 61319-83828) by 2040, with ASYLDsR declining to 1.54 per 100000 (95% CI: 0.90-2.17).
Conclusions: The burden of smoking-associated AMD demonstrates marked demographic and geographical heterogeneity. Aging populations drive rising absolute case numbers, while disparities in tobacco control policies contribute to regional divergence in ASYLDsR.
期刊介绍：
Tobacco Induced Diseases encompasses all aspects of research related to the prevention and control of tobacco use at a global level. Preventing diseases attributable to tobacco is only one aspect of the journal, whose overall scope is to provide a forum for the publication of research articles that can contribute to reducing the burden of tobacco induced diseases globally. To address this epidemic we believe that there must be an avenue for the publication of research/policy activities on tobacco control initiatives that may be very important at a regional and national level. This approach provides a very important "hands on" service to the tobacco control community at a global scale - as common problems have common solutions. Hence, we see ourselves as "connectors" within this global community.
The journal hence encourages the submission of articles from all medical, biological and psychosocial disciplines, ranging from medical and dental clinicians, through health professionals to basic biomedical and clinical scientists.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
