Modeling electricity demand in China based on macro and micro-level methods

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy Pub Date : 2025-07-14 DOI:10.1016/j.jup.2025.101994

Shaogang Chen, Zizhe Wang

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study analyzes residential electricity demand in Chengdu from both micro and macro-level perspectives. Household survey data is used at the micro level to estimate demand functions and capture heterogeneity via corresponding random and fixed effect models and quantile regression. At the macro level, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration method examines the relationships between electricity demand, gross domestic product (GDP), and prices. Results show significant differences in price and income elasticity across households, and economic growth drives energy consumption. Combining macro and micro-level analyses helps better understand demand patterns and supports more effective policy decisions.

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基于宏观和微观方法的中国电力需求建模

本研究从微观和宏观两个层面对成都市居民用电需求进行分析。在微观层面上，利用住户调查数据估计需求函数，并通过相应的随机和固定效应模型和分位数回归捕捉异质性。在宏观层面上，自回归分布滞后（ARDL）协整方法检验了电力需求、国内生产总值（GDP）和价格之间的关系。结果表明，不同家庭的价格和收入弹性存在显著差异，经济增长驱动能源消费。结合宏观和微观层面的分析有助于更好地理解需求模式，并支持更有效的政策决策。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Utilities Policy ENERGY & FUELS-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

66 days

期刊介绍： Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services. Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.