Mineral price shocks on macroeconomic aggregates in a highly dependent small open economy: Evidence from Peru, 2003–2024

IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
Elmer Sánchez-Dávila , Andrés Riquelme
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to estimate the effects of a mineral price shock on macroeconomic aggregates in a small open economy that is highly dependent on mineral exports, such as Peru. The paper considers two key features of the Peruvian mining industry: its polymetallic nature and the cyclical phases of price fluctuations. The former allows for the development of a Mineral Price Index (MPI), while the latter enables the testing of structural breaks, which facilitates the use of a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. Our results indicate that a shock to the MPI has a significant effect of 11.5 % on GDP and 15.5 % on overall inflation. However, the impact varies depending on the phase of MPI fluctuations. These findings underscore the importance of having flexible policy responses to mitigate the effects of future mineral price shocks and highlight the role that mineral price fluctuations play in shaping Peru's macroeconomic performance, particularly during boom periods. This paper also contributes to filling the gap in the local empirical literature regarding these two aspects of the Peruvian mining industry.
矿产价格冲击对高度依赖的小型开放经济体宏观经济总量的影响:来自秘鲁2003-2024年的证据
本文的目的是估计矿产价格冲击对高度依赖矿产出口的小型开放经济体(如秘鲁)宏观经济总量的影响。本文审议了秘鲁采矿业的两个主要特点:多金属性质和价格波动的周期性阶段。前者允许开发矿物价格指数(MPI),而后者允许测试结构断裂,这有利于使用时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)模型。我们的研究结果表明,对MPI的冲击对GDP的影响为11.5%,对整体通胀的影响为15.5%。然而,影响因MPI波动的阶段而异。这些调查结果强调了采取灵活的政策应对措施以减轻未来矿物价格冲击的影响的重要性,并强调了矿物价格波动在影响秘鲁宏观经济表现方面的作用,特别是在繁荣时期。本文也有助于填补秘鲁采矿业在这两个方面的当地实证文献的空白。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Resources Policy
Resources Policy ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-
CiteScore
13.40
自引率
23.50%
发文量
602
审稿时长
69 days
期刊介绍: Resources Policy is an international journal focused on the economics and policy aspects of mineral and fossil fuel extraction, production, and utilization. It targets individuals in academia, government, and industry. The journal seeks original research submissions analyzing public policy, economics, social science, geography, and finance in the fields of mining, non-fuel minerals, energy minerals, fossil fuels, and metals. Mineral economics topics covered include mineral market analysis, price analysis, project evaluation, mining and sustainable development, mineral resource rents, resource curse, mineral wealth and corruption, mineral taxation and regulation, strategic minerals and their supply, and the impact of mineral development on local communities and indigenous populations. The journal specifically excludes papers with agriculture, forestry, or fisheries as their primary focus.
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