Research on safety resilience evaluation of gastransmission pipelines in chemical industry parks

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI:10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105739

Jiahui Wei , Jixin Zhang , Yimeng Xia , Qiuju You , Jianyu Qiao , Shihao Zhang , Lan Wang , Zhonghao Li

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Gas transmission pipelines within chemical industrial parks operate in complex environments with elevated risk profiles, where potential leaks or explosions could trigger cascading consequences including operational disruptions, critical infrastructure failures and severe environmental and safety implications. Consequently, this study develops a systematic safety resilience assessment framework for gas transmission pipelines in chemical industrial parks, integrating system dynamics simulation methodologies. A comprehensive complex network model is established to identify and analyze critical factors influencing pipeline safety resilience. The proposed evaluation framework incorporates a multidimensional index system encompassing resistance, recovery and adaptability capacities. By integrating techniques such as quadratic exponential smoothing, grey system theory and system dynamics simulation, the safety resilience characteristics of gas transmission pipelines are quantitatively evaluated and predicted. The analytical results provide valuable insights into the evolutionary trends of resistance, recovery, adaptability and overall system resilience of gas transmission infrastructure. The findings offer critical insights for ensuring the safe operation of gas transmission pipelines and enhancing the overall resilience of chemical industry parks.

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化工园区输气管道安全弹性评价研究

化工园区内的天然气输送管道在复杂的环境中运行，风险较高，潜在的泄漏或爆炸可能引发一系列后果，包括运营中断、关键基础设施故障以及严重的环境和安全影响。因此，本研究结合系统动力学模拟方法，开发了化工园区输气管道系统安全弹性评估框架。建立综合复杂网络模型，识别和分析影响管道安全弹性的关键因素。提出的评价框架包括一个多维指标体系，包括抵抗能力、恢复能力和适应能力。结合二次指数平滑、灰色系统理论和系统动力学仿真等技术，对输气管道的安全弹性特性进行了定量评价和预测。分析结果为天然气输送基础设施的阻力、恢复、适应性和整体系统弹性的演化趋势提供了有价值的见解。研究结果为确保输气管道的安全运行和提高化工园区的整体弹性提供了重要的见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries 工程技术-工程：化工

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

14.30%

发文量

226

审稿时长

52 days

期刊介绍： The broad scope of the journal is process safety. Process safety is defined as the prevention and mitigation of process-related injuries and damage arising from process incidents involving fire, explosion and toxic release. Such undesired events occur in the process industries during the use, storage, manufacture, handling, and transportation of highly hazardous chemicals.