A mangrove Lifecycle Ecosystem Analysis and Forecasting (LEAF) model

Abstract

Mangroves are recognised for the ecosystem services they provide, yet practitioners lack guidance for quantifying these services over time. To overcome this knowledge gap, this study developed a numerical tool, the mangrove Lifecycle Ecosystem Analysis and Forecasting (LEAF) model, that simulates the growth and mortality of mangroves across all lifecycle stages (seedling to senescence). To test model functionality, the LEAF model (version 1.0, dated 31.01.2025) was coupled to Delft3D Flexible Mesh, where individual mangrove size, impacts of extreme events, biomass, and coastal protection parameters were monitored. Cross-shore mangrove distribution was successfully predicted in four estuary typologies over temporal domains of 5-12 years. Sensitivity analyses revealed the timing and duration of the fruiting window, inundation free period, and inundation depth as critical to forest development. Results highlight the need for field data acquisition to target these thresholds, further validate mangrove growth, and expand the model to other species and locations worldwide.