{"title":"The Impact of Rainfall-Induced Income Shocks on Crime: Evidence From Indonesia","authors":"Allen Hardiman","doi":"10.1002/jid.4000","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper investigates the causal impact of rainfall shocks on crime rates in Indonesia by utilising two novel crime data sources: newspaper reports and crime victimisation data from a household survey. By leveraging the income data from the household survey, this study directly tests the economic channel through which rainfall affects crime. The findings reveal mixed results depending on the data source. Newspaper reports indicate no relationship between rainfall shocks and crime incidents. In contrast, analysis using the crime victimisation data demonstrates that positive rainfall shocks reduce the probability of becoming a victim of any crime by 12% compared with negative rainfall shocks. This reduction is driven entirely by property crimes, with no impact observed on other types of crime. These results highlight the nontrivial role of economic conditions in influencing property-related crime. I explore various reasons that may contribute to the different results between the two data sources.</p>","PeriodicalId":47986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Development","volume":"37 5","pages":"1104-1115"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jid.4000","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of International Development","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jid.4000","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"DEVELOPMENT STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper investigates the causal impact of rainfall shocks on crime rates in Indonesia by utilising two novel crime data sources: newspaper reports and crime victimisation data from a household survey. By leveraging the income data from the household survey, this study directly tests the economic channel through which rainfall affects crime. The findings reveal mixed results depending on the data source. Newspaper reports indicate no relationship between rainfall shocks and crime incidents. In contrast, analysis using the crime victimisation data demonstrates that positive rainfall shocks reduce the probability of becoming a victim of any crime by 12% compared with negative rainfall shocks. This reduction is driven entirely by property crimes, with no impact observed on other types of crime. These results highlight the nontrivial role of economic conditions in influencing property-related crime. I explore various reasons that may contribute to the different results between the two data sources.
期刊介绍：
The Journal aims to publish the best research on international development issues in a form that is accessible to practitioners and policy-makers as well as to an academic audience. The main focus is on the social sciences - economics, politics, international relations, sociology and anthropology, as well as development studies - but we also welcome articles that blend the natural and social sciences in addressing the challenges for development. The Journal does not represent any particular school, analytical technique or methodological approach, but aims to publish high quality contributions to ideas, frameworks, policy and practice, including in transitional countries and underdeveloped areas of the Global North as well as the Global South.
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