Predicting global pneumonia mortality trends by age group: A modeling study

Abstract

Objectives

Pneumonia continues to be a major health issue worldwide, especially impacting those at risk across various age categories. This study aims to forecast pneumonia mortality trends by age group through 2030 using diverse modeling techniques to inform targeted public health interventions.

Study design

A predictive modeling study utilizing publicly available secondary data.

Methods

We employed five forecasting models—Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Generalized Additive Model (GAM), Simple Linear Regression (SLR), Facebook's Prophet model, and the n-sub-epidemic framework— to global, age-specific pneumonia mortality data from 2020 to 2030, based on data from 1990 to 2019. The percentage change in pneumonia deaths from 2020 to 2030 and forecasting uncertainty were assessed for all models.

Results

Our model-based projections suggest a sustained increase in global pneumonia mortality among individuals aged ≥70 years (6.0 %–35.4 %), a gradual increase in ages 50–69 (0.4 %–19.9 %), while children under 5 years of age (−33.2 % to −97.3 %) and 5–14 years (−22.7 % to −45.9 %) showed a decline by 2030. The n-sub-epidemic models predicted a decrease in mortality for ages 15–49 (−9.1 % to −11.6 %), contrasting with statistical models that showed increasing trends among ages 15–49 (0.1 %–11.6 %).

Conclusions

Pneumonia mortality trends are projected to vary considerably by age group, emphasizing the importance of age-specific policies. The use of multiple robust forecasting methods revealed consistent trends across most age groups and provided valuable insights into mortality dynamics. Future efforts should integrate region-specific data and retrospective model validation to improve predictive accuracy.