Predictions, uncertainty, and collective epistemic work: How projected futures informed and misinformed enactments of Covid-19

Abstract

By connecting an uncertain present to a potential future, predictions and other forms of projected futures construct meaningful contexts on which actors can lean when seeking to act in the face of uncertainty. This article outlines the background and careers of many, and often contradicting, futures that informed the collective work to define and represent Covid-19 in Sweden during the first half of 2020. Through an analysis of press briefing transcripts, in-depth interviews with centrally placed informants, and a timeline of Covid-19–related events, debates, and policies in Sweden, this article outlines how enactments of Covid-19 evolved over time—from straightforward comparisons to past experiences, to repurposed models intended to make the pandemic calculable, to survey-based extrapolations produced by the Public Health Agency. The article demonstrates how a combination of contextual factors and a continuously evolving knowledge base led some enactments to become more influential than others, allowing them to influence evolving decisions and strategies. The article highlights the role of competing voices and perspectives in the collective epistemic work performed during the pandemic and explores Covid-19 as a multiple entity composed of a patchwork of data and assumptions. Depending on what futures informed them, these enactments varied from catastrophic and dystopian, to hopeful promises of an eventual return to normality.