Trends of Female Breast Cancer Incidence, Mortality, and Survival in Fujian Province of China: 2011–2020 and Projection to 2025

IF 2.9 2区医学 Q2 ONCOLOGY

Cancer Medicine Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI:10.1002/cam4.71033

Yeying Wen, Jingyu Ma, Zhisheng Xiang, Yongtian Lin, Yongying Huang, Linying Liu, Yan Zhou, Yang Sun

{"title":"Trends of Female Breast Cancer Incidence, Mortality, and Survival in Fujian Province of China: 2011–2020 and Projection to 2025","authors":"Yeying Wen, Jingyu Ma, Zhisheng Xiang, Yongtian Lin, Yongying Huang, Linying Liu, Yan Zhou, Yang Sun","doi":"10.1002/cam4.71033","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Background</h3>\n \n <p>Breast cancer was the second most common cancer and the fifth leading cause of cancer deaths among women in China, with increasing trends. Evaluating breast cancer trends and predicting future burdens can inform prevention strategies. This study aimed to analyze the trends in female breast cancer incidence, mortality, and survival in Fujian Province, southeastern China, between 2011 and 2020, and to project the future burden through 2025.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Methods</h3>\n \n <p>Population-based cancer registry data from Fujian Province were collected during 2011–2020, with survival follow-up extending through March 2022, covering approximately 2.59 million women. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated using Segi's world standard population. Temporal trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression analysis to determine average annual percentage change (AAPC). Relative survival were computed as the ratio of observed survival to expected survival. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict incidence and mortality for 2021–2025.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Results</h3>\n \n <p>During 2011–2020, 8047 female breast cancer cases and 1754 deaths were recorded. The ASIR increased from 19.34/100,000 to 38.73/100,000, with an AAPC of 7.4% (95% CI: 3.6%–11.4%). The ASMR increased from 3.37/100,000 to 6.19/100,000, with an AAPC of 8.3% (95% CI: 4.3%–12.4%). Rural areas showed more rapid increases in both incidence and mortality than in urban areas. In 2011–2014, 2015–2017, and 2018–2020, the age-standardized 5-year relative survival rates were 64.10% (95% CI: 59.85–68.02), 69.35% (95% CI: 64.62–73.57), and 72.94% (95% CI: 68.5–76.86), with higher survival in urban areas and younger age groups. The ARIMA models projected continued increases in both ASIR and ASMR through 2025, reaching 46.41/100,000 and 8.46/100,000, respectively.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Conclusion</h3>\n \n <p>Breast cancer constitutes an escalating public health challenge in Fujian Province with disparities across age groups and urban and rural areas. Future strategies should prioritize healthcare equity and regional resource allocation to reduce mortality and enhance survival outcomes.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":139,"journal":{"name":"Cancer Medicine","volume":"14 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/cam4.71033","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cancer Medicine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cam4.71033","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ONCOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Breast cancer was the second most common cancer and the fifth leading cause of cancer deaths among women in China, with increasing trends. Evaluating breast cancer trends and predicting future burdens can inform prevention strategies. This study aimed to analyze the trends in female breast cancer incidence, mortality, and survival in Fujian Province, southeastern China, between 2011 and 2020, and to project the future burden through 2025.

Methods

Population-based cancer registry data from Fujian Province were collected during 2011–2020, with survival follow-up extending through March 2022, covering approximately 2.59 million women. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated using Segi's world standard population. Temporal trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression analysis to determine average annual percentage change (AAPC). Relative survival were computed as the ratio of observed survival to expected survival. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict incidence and mortality for 2021–2025.

Results

During 2011–2020, 8047 female breast cancer cases and 1754 deaths were recorded. The ASIR increased from 19.34/100,000 to 38.73/100,000, with an AAPC of 7.4% (95% CI: 3.6%–11.4%). The ASMR increased from 3.37/100,000 to 6.19/100,000, with an AAPC of 8.3% (95% CI: 4.3%–12.4%). Rural areas showed more rapid increases in both incidence and mortality than in urban areas. In 2011–2014, 2015–2017, and 2018–2020, the age-standardized 5-year relative survival rates were 64.10% (95% CI: 59.85–68.02), 69.35% (95% CI: 64.62–73.57), and 72.94% (95% CI: 68.5–76.86), with higher survival in urban areas and younger age groups. The ARIMA models projected continued increases in both ASIR and ASMR through 2025, reaching 46.41/100,000 and 8.46/100,000, respectively.

Conclusion

Breast cancer constitutes an escalating public health challenge in Fujian Province with disparities across age groups and urban and rural areas. Future strategies should prioritize healthcare equity and regional resource allocation to reduce mortality and enhance survival outcomes.

Abstract Image

查看原文本刊更多论文

中国福建省女性乳腺癌发病率、死亡率和生存趋势：2011-2020年和预测到2025年

乳腺癌是中国女性癌症死亡的第二大常见癌症和第五大原因，并呈上升趋势。评估乳腺癌趋势和预测未来负担可以为预防战略提供信息。本研究旨在分析2011年至2020年中国东南部福建省女性乳腺癌发病率、死亡率和生存率的趋势，并预测到2025年的未来负担。方法收集福建省2011-2020年期间基于人群的癌症登记数据，随访至2022年3月，涵盖约259万名女性。使用Segi世界标准人口计算年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和死亡率（ASMR）。使用Joinpoint回归分析评估时间趋势，以确定平均年百分比变化（AAPC）。相对生存期计算为观察生存期与预期生存期之比。采用自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测2021-2025年的发病率和死亡率。结果2011-2020年共发生女性乳腺癌8047例，死亡1754例。ASIR从19.34/10万增加到38.73/10万，AAPC为7.4% （95% CI: 3.6%-11.4%）。ASMR从3.37/10万增加到6.19/10万，AAPC为8.3% （95% CI: 4.3%-12.4%）。农村地区的发病率和死亡率都比城市地区增长更快。2011-2014年、2015-2017年和2018-2020年，年龄标准化5年相对生存率分别为64.10% （95% CI: 59.85 ~ 68.02）、69.35% （95% CI: 64.62 ~ 73.57）和72.94% (95% CI: 68.5 ~ 76.86)，城市地区和低龄人群生存率较高。ARIMA模型预测，到2025年，ASIR和ASMR将继续增加，分别达到46.41/100,000和8.46/100,000。结论福建省乳腺癌已成为日益严重的公共卫生挑战，且存在年龄组和城乡差异。未来的战略应优先考虑医疗公平和区域资源分配，以降低死亡率和提高生存结果。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Cancer Medicine ONCOLOGY-

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

2.50%

发文量

907

审稿时长

19 weeks

期刊介绍： Cancer Medicine is a peer-reviewed, open access, interdisciplinary journal providing rapid publication of research from global biomedical researchers across the cancer sciences. The journal will consider submissions from all oncologic specialties, including, but not limited to, the following areas: Clinical Cancer Research Translational research ∙ clinical trials ∙ chemotherapy ∙ radiation therapy ∙ surgical therapy ∙ clinical observations ∙ clinical guidelines ∙ genetic consultation ∙ ethical considerations Cancer Biology: Molecular biology ∙ cellular biology ∙ molecular genetics ∙ genomics ∙ immunology ∙ epigenetics ∙ metabolic studies ∙ proteomics ∙ cytopathology ∙ carcinogenesis ∙ drug discovery and delivery. Cancer Prevention: Behavioral science ∙ psychosocial studies ∙ screening ∙ nutrition ∙ epidemiology and prevention ∙ community outreach. Bioinformatics: Gene expressions profiles ∙ gene regulation networks ∙ genome bioinformatics ∙ pathwayanalysis ∙ prognostic biomarkers. Cancer Medicine publishes original research articles, systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and research methods papers, along with invited editorials and commentaries. Original research papers must report well-conducted research with conclusions supported by the data presented in the paper.