Understanding the role of the COVID-19 pandemic on risky driving behavior and injury severity of drivers: Embracing heterogeneity in means and variances

Abstract

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic significantly altered global mobility patterns, leading to a marked decrease in travel activities worldwide. In the United States, travel demand fell notably, contributing to a 22% reduction in overall crashes in 2020 compared to the prior year. In Oregon, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) dropped by 10.8%, and crashes decreased by 23.9%, yet fatalities increased by 2.63%. This rise in fatal crashes is linked to altered driving behavior, including aggressive, distracted, and impaired driving. This study investigates factors related to risky driving behavior-induced crashes in Oregon during the pandemic. Utilizing a random parameter multinomial logit model that accommodates heterogeneity, we found significant correlations between reckless behaviors, such as driving without a license, speeding, and neglecting to use restraints, and the severity of injuries. Our findings indicate temporal instability in factors contributing to injury severity. In 2019, severe injuries were more common in crashes involving drug use, drivers aged 45–54, and in speed zones of 45–55 mph (1 mph = 1.609 344 km/h). In 2020, young drivers under 25 and night-time crashes on lit streets were more likely to result in severe injuries. This research sheds light on the impact of COVID-19 on driver behavior and injury severity, particularly concerning aggressive driving. The identified risk factors are crucial for state and federal agencies to enhance road safety measures and ensure safer environments for all road users.