Sex- & age-selectivity in rural-urban migration in northern Sweden 1900–2019

Abstract

This study examines long-term patterns in rural-to-urban migration in the northern Swedish county of Västerbotten from 1900 to 2019. The study is based on individual-level register data that have been harmonized across time. The main focus is on the development of the sex and age profile of the rural-urban migrants. The analysis is conducted using discrete-time event history analysis in terms of the logistic hazard rate of rural-urban migration. The results, as expected, show that the development of the hazard of rural-urban migration increased substantially over time, closely following the general development of urbanization in Sweden. Furthermore, that the hazard among women was continuously larger than among men. However, the relative differences between the sexes were largest at the beginning of the investigated period and have become smaller over time, primarily due to men gradually adopting migration patterns similar to those of women. The study suggests that this is due to the rural labor market, which for a long time offered more compelling pathways for men to stay in rural areas. However, as these rural labor markets gradually declined during the 20th century, coupled with the increasing importance of higher education, rural men began moving to urban areas to a greater degree. While young adults constituted the age group with the highest risk of rural-urban migration throughout the period, the earliest rural-urban migrants started to move directly as they reached working age, however, after the 1980s, movers typically postpone migration until their early 20s, the same time as they enter into tertiary education.