Ecological Pathway to Achieve Carbon Neutrality in China’s Building Sector

Abstract

Buildings are crucial for achieving carbon reduction and mitigating climate change. China’s dual-carbon strategy includes ambitious goals for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the building sector. However, clear technical pathways and roadmaps for achieving these objectives remain lacking. In this study, we examined the trajectory and characteristics of energy consumption and emissions in China’s building sector and conducted future scenario analyses informed by global comparative studies. Ecological development pathways were proposed as target scenarios to achieve carbon neutrality in the building sector. Detailed pathways to achieve carbon neutrality were delineated, covering various tasks and timelines. These included managing building stocks, improving energy efficiency and sufficiency, promoting electrification, implementing photovoltaic–energy storage–direct current–flexibility (PEDF) buildings, decarbonizing heating systems, and developing new energy systems for rural areas. In addition, we discussed and recommended policy measures to enhance building service provisions within the framework of the ecological development concept and promote key technologies within the context of a low-carbon energy system transition. The findings of this study provide high-level recommendations for policymakers in the building and energy sectors and offer insights into technological perspectives and development targets for future research and engineering practice.