Links between COVID-19 lockdowns and drug overdose deaths, evidence from panel data

Abstract

This paper studies the impacts of divergent state government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on drug overdose deaths. Using Difference-in-Differences method, I exploit the cross-state variation in the timing of lockdown policies to examine how COVID-19 lockdowns affected drug overdose deaths. To the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that comprehensively examines the causal links between COVID-19 lockdowns and drug overdose deaths in the US. By emphasizing the impacts of lockdown “mandates” vs. “recommendations,” I find credible evidence supporting that the implementation of lockdown mandates led to more drug overdose deaths. My baseline estimates indicate a 15% to 20% increase in drug overdose deaths. To make my results generalizable, I examine three potential mechanisms, including labor market outcomes, mental health, and isolation. I find that isolation induced by the COVID-19 lockdown mandates likely contributes to the increase in drug overdose deaths, while there is only weak evidence that labor market outcomes and mental health serve as plausible channels.