{"title":"Time Series Analysis of Daily Bed Costs and Consumption Ratio of Inpatients with CHD in a Children's Hospital in Chengdu.","authors":"Honglin Yang, Siyu Xiang, Yuwei Yang","doi":"10.2147/RMHP.S522080","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>This study aims to examine the evolving trends in daily bed costs and the ratios of consumables costs for inpatients with congenital heart disease (CHD) at a pediatric hospital in Chengdu from 2019 to 2024 and to project these metrics for the year 2025.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Utilizing SPSS version 23.0, we employed exponential smoothing and ARIMA models to analyze the daily bed cost data of CHD inpatients from 2019 to 2023, constructing predictive models accordingly. The annual data for 2024 were forecasted and subsequently compared with actual values to assess model accuracy. Visualization of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) charts was conducted to identify the optimal model, which was then utilized to predict daily bed costs and consumables cost ratios for 2025.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Between 2019 and 2023, both daily bed costs and consumables cost ratios for CHD patients exhibited a consistent annual increase. A decline was noted in 2024, with projections for 2025 suggesting increases to approximately 5,600 CNY and 47%, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>For operational recommendations, it is advised that the hospital prioritizes the management of high-value consumables in CHD care and considers piloting disease-specific cost accounting within cardiovascular departments. From a policy perspective, there is an urgent need to optimize China's existing medical insurance payment system for pediatric hospitals to address the rising healthcare costs.</p>","PeriodicalId":56009,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management and Healthcare Policy","volume":"18 ","pages":"2247-2257"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12230755/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Risk Management and Healthcare Policy","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2147/RMHP.S522080","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Objective: This study aims to examine the evolving trends in daily bed costs and the ratios of consumables costs for inpatients with congenital heart disease (CHD) at a pediatric hospital in Chengdu from 2019 to 2024 and to project these metrics for the year 2025.
Methods: Utilizing SPSS version 23.0, we employed exponential smoothing and ARIMA models to analyze the daily bed cost data of CHD inpatients from 2019 to 2023, constructing predictive models accordingly. The annual data for 2024 were forecasted and subsequently compared with actual values to assess model accuracy. Visualization of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) charts was conducted to identify the optimal model, which was then utilized to predict daily bed costs and consumables cost ratios for 2025.
Results: Between 2019 and 2023, both daily bed costs and consumables cost ratios for CHD patients exhibited a consistent annual increase. A decline was noted in 2024, with projections for 2025 suggesting increases to approximately 5,600 CNY and 47%, respectively.
Conclusion: For operational recommendations, it is advised that the hospital prioritizes the management of high-value consumables in CHD care and considers piloting disease-specific cost accounting within cardiovascular departments. From a policy perspective, there is an urgent need to optimize China's existing medical insurance payment system for pediatric hospitals to address the rising healthcare costs.
期刊介绍：
Risk Management and Healthcare Policy is an international, peer-reviewed, open access journal focusing on all aspects of public health, policy and preventative measures to promote good health and improve morbidity and mortality in the population. Specific topics covered in the journal include:
Public and community health
Policy and law
Preventative and predictive healthcare
Risk and hazard management
Epidemiology, detection and screening
Lifestyle and diet modification
Vaccination and disease transmission/modification programs
Health and safety and occupational health
Healthcare services provision
Health literacy and education
Advertising and promotion of health issues
Health economic evaluations and resource management
Risk Management and Healthcare Policy focuses on human interventional and observational research. The journal welcomes submitted papers covering original research, clinical and epidemiological studies, reviews and evaluations, guidelines, expert opinion and commentary, and extended reports. Case reports will only be considered if they make a valuable and original contribution to the literature. The journal does not accept study protocols, animal-based or cell line-based studies.
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