Analysis of the Burden and Changing Trends of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in China from 1990 to 2021.

Abstract

Objective To analyze the trend of disease burden changes in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)in China from 1990 to 2021,and provide a basis for formulating prevention and treatment strategies.Methods The standardized incidence rate,prevalence,mortality and disability adjusted life year(DALY)rate of NAFLD in China from 1990 to 2021 in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 were extracted.The average annual percentage change of the rate was calculated by Joinpoint 4.2 and the age,period and birth cohort effects of the prevalence and DALY rate were analyzed by age-period-cohort model.Results Since 1990,the incidence rate and prevalence of NAFLD have been on the rise,while the mortality and DALY have been on the decline.The age effect of disease incidence and DALY rate shows an upward trend followed by a downward trend for both males and females.The period effect is based on the period from 1992 to 1996 as the reference group,and the overall trend of the disease incidence period effect curve shows a downward trend followed by an upward trend,with the period from 2002 to 2006 being the lowest point(RR=0.93).The period effect curves of DALY showed a downward trend from 1992 to 2011,and then tended to flatten out.The birth cohort effect was used as the reference group from 1972 to 1981,and the incidence rate showed a steady upward trend in the general population,male and female populations.The DALY rate showed an overall upward trend followed by a downward trend,with the peak occurring in the birth cohort group between 1922 and 1931.The DALY rate of NAFLD caused by smoking and high fasting blood glucose has shown a downward trend since 2014,and fasting blood glucose gradually becomes the dominant factor with age.Conclusions The prevalence of NAFLD in China has been on the rise from 1990 to 2021,but the DALY rate has significantly decreased.This suggests that current prevention and control strategies are effective,and further efforts should be made to raise residents' health awareness and control the occurrence and development of NAFLD.