Uncertainty and participation in global and regional value chains in Africa

Abstract

This article focuses on the challenges that uncertainty poses to countries in global and regional value chains. In this perspective, it focuses specifically on African countries and enriches the results with a comparative approach. Indeed, using a gravity model for 49 African countries and all their trading partners from 1990 to 2019, the paper proposes a comparative analysis of the effects of uncertainty on global trade in value chains and on trade in value chains within Africa. The robustness of the results shows that domestic uncertainty can drive the expansion of intra-African trade in value chains, while uncertainty in the partner country hinders the flourishing of trade relationships within a value chain.