Dynamics of bovine tuberculosis transmission in mixed herds in Chad

Abstract

We consider a model for the spread of bovine tuberculosis in herds comprising three species (bovids, caprids and equids) in Chad. The epidemiological model is built on top of a classic Lotka–Volterra competition model, which is exploited in a regime where stable coexistence of the three species holds. The epidemiological model itself is an SLI model, because of the absence of treatment for herds in the area. After studying some mathematical properties of the model, we perform a short computational analysis, investigating sensitivity of the model and comparing solutions with and without competition. To gain more understanding on the timing of events, we also consider the continuous time Markov chain analogue of the model.