Evidence-based analysis on the hazard causation of general aviation in China

Abstract

The insufficient hazard management capacity of general aviation enterprises has led to frequent safety incidents and placed the industry in a persistent safety dilemma. Enhancing hazard identification and control is therefore critical to improving the current unstable safety situation. This paper proposes an evidence-based analytical approach to systematically examine hazard causation in general aviation, integrating factors across human, technical, environmental, and managerial domains. Drawing on accident chain theory, a risk coefficient-based optimization model is developed, and an evidence-based hazard tracing method is constructed within the EBAS-HO framework, which builds upon and improves the HOP-HFACS model. Grey Relational Analysis and structural entropy theory are employed to assess hazard interactions and system structure. Results. The analysis of 43 accident cases identifies six key hazard factors: safety production cost, human error, occupational factors, emergency preparedness, technical safety measures, and environmental conditions. In addition, violations behavior serves as a critical mediating factor linking other variables to accident occurrence. Comparative model evaluation demonstrates that the proposed EBAS-HO framework outperforms traditional HFACS in terms of accuracy, structure, and predictive capability. Compared to conventional hazard identification approaches, the integration of evidence-based tracing and control enhances the visibility and traceability of system hazards, enabling more targeted safety interventions. This approach substantially improves hazard governance and safety management capacity in the general aviation sector.