Effects of connection time on connected itineraries in Indian domestic aviation market

Abstract

Connected air itineraries are an integral part of air travel. There is a mixed perception among passengers regarding connections at an intermediate airport as they present a range of difficulties, such as the chances of missing a flight, and loosing or delaying of checked-in baggage. In addition, operational issues (long inter-terminal transfers, inadequate availability of intra-airport shuttle services, delays in baggage check-in, etc.) at the airports also cause inconvenience to passengers using connected itineraries. One of the critical backend procedures to provide uninterrupted and efficient air travel for passengers is the provision of minimum connection time (MCT) at an airport for an itinerary with a connection, which is vital for flight operations. There have been discussions on the amount of time spent for a connection, and the conventional belief that passengers favour short connection times is widespread among air travellers. This study aims to analyse this hypothesis for domestic air itineraries by using a revealed preference data collected in India. A multinomial logit (MNL) specification with correction for price endogeneity is adopted to model airline itinerary choice of passengers. A recursive method in MNL is used to dynamically create the utility function to handle large and varying alternatives. For alternative choice set generation, actual (real) alternatives available to passengers are used in the MNL model. A piecewise linear specification is used to address the non-linearity of the connection time for direct itineraries (includes a stop, with no plane change) and connected itineraries (includes a stop, with a plane change). Results reveal that there is a positive influence of connection time on utilities up to 120 min for connected itineraries. The connection time duration of 90–120 min for connected itineraries is found to provide maximum utility to flyers, balancing the need for sufficient time to navigate transitions such as security checks and gate changes, while minimizing the inconvenience of extended waiting periods. For direct itineraries a connection time beyond 35 min is found to reduce the utility substantially on direct itineraries. To understand the economic significance of the connection time, the willingness to pay estimates are evaluated and validated by estimating confidence intervals using Monte Carlo simulations using a truncated normal distribution. Findings reveal that flyers are willing to pay INR 14 (USD 0.16) per minute up to 90 min and INR 30 (USD 0.36) per minute for reductions beyond 120 min for connected itineraries. In contrast, for direct itineraries, passengers are willing to pay INR 2.8 (USD 0.03) per minute for layovers up to 35 min and INR 66 (USD 0.77) per minute for reductions beyond 35 min. This paper provides insights regarding the willingness to pay for each additional minute on a connection, thereby can help carriers to schedule their connections and provide adequate connection times for various airports based on the potential mix of air passengers.