{"title":"Reliability-based critical rainfall pattern curve for slope stability of tailing dams","authors":"Chao Wang, Hongliang Jing, Leilei Liu, Liang Li, Yutong Zhang","doi":"10.1002/esp.70123","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>To address the effects of rainfall and variability in soil parameters on the slope stability of tailing dams, the existing Factor of Safety (FoS)-based critical rainfall pattern curve (CRPC) is extended to a reliability-based CRPC. The proposed reliability-based CRPC is illustrated through a simplified tailing dam. The results have shown that there exists a specific rainfall intensity (named safe rainfall intensity), below which the slope of tailing dams will be in a safe state no matter how long the rainfall duration is. The larger the safe rainfall intensity, the higher the safety margin for the slope stability of tailing dams. A greater saturated permeability coefficient leads to a larger safe rainfall intensity. A longer length of dry beach results in a higher safety margin for the slope stability of tailing dams. The presence of a drainage pipe contributes most to the increase in the stability of tailing dams under rainfall infiltration. The FoS-based CRPC tends to overestimate the safety margin of the slope stability of tailing dams, owing to the omission of variability in soil parameters as compared with the reliability-based CRPC. An earlier warning plan will be made based on reliability-based CRPC than based on FoS-based CRPC.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"50 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/esp.70123","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
To address the effects of rainfall and variability in soil parameters on the slope stability of tailing dams, the existing Factor of Safety (FoS)-based critical rainfall pattern curve (CRPC) is extended to a reliability-based CRPC. The proposed reliability-based CRPC is illustrated through a simplified tailing dam. The results have shown that there exists a specific rainfall intensity (named safe rainfall intensity), below which the slope of tailing dams will be in a safe state no matter how long the rainfall duration is. The larger the safe rainfall intensity, the higher the safety margin for the slope stability of tailing dams. A greater saturated permeability coefficient leads to a larger safe rainfall intensity. A longer length of dry beach results in a higher safety margin for the slope stability of tailing dams. The presence of a drainage pipe contributes most to the increase in the stability of tailing dams under rainfall infiltration. The FoS-based CRPC tends to overestimate the safety margin of the slope stability of tailing dams, owing to the omission of variability in soil parameters as compared with the reliability-based CRPC. An earlier warning plan will be made based on reliability-based CRPC than based on FoS-based CRPC.
期刊介绍：
Earth Surface Processes and Landforms is an interdisciplinary international journal concerned with:
the interactions between surface processes and landforms and landscapes;
that lead to physical, chemical and biological changes; and which in turn create;
current landscapes and the geological record of past landscapes.
Its focus is core to both physical geographical and geological communities, and also the wider geosciences
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