Coupling Coordination Framework for Assessing Balanced Development Between Potential Ecosystem Services and Human Activities

Abstract

Sustainable development between human activities and the natural environment remains a challenge, particularly in China's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Inner Mongolia (JJJM) region, where rapid socioeconomic development and the need for ecological barrier protection impose dual pressures. To address these challenges, the Coupling Coordination Degree framework is employed to analyze the relationship between human activities and the environment. An adjusted ecosystem services (ES) matrix is used to calculate the supply, demand, and balance of potential ES and develops a human activity intensity index (HAII) that considers multiple factors, such as nighttime light and grazing intensity. By analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution of ES supply, demand, balance, HAII, and coordination degree from 2000 to 2020, this research provides insights into the evolution of coordinated human-environmental development. Results indicate ES supply increased, but ES balance first improved and then declined. Meanwhile, HAII increased continuously, a bivariate local Moran's I test (−0.23) reveals a significant trade-off between ES balance and HAII. Coupling Coordination analysis shows that over 86% of the region has a coordination degree below 0.7, indicating Barely Balanced Development. The most significant drop occurred in Tianjin, suggesting that intensified human activities may have contributed to the declining ES balance. Forests and grasslands account for over 88% of the cumulative contribution to ES balance. Scientific restoration of grasslands and maintenance of forest ecosystems are crucial for sustaining the human-environment system in the JJJM region. This study reveals ES balance–human activity coordination dynamics, supporting differentiated ecological compensation and an integrated ecological governance system for urban-rural coordination.