Supply-demand and interplay of food-energy-water nexus system of Hexi Corridor, China

Abstract

The Hexi Corridor plays a pivotal role in the sustainable development of the Belt and Road initiative. However, the region is resource-dependent and faces crises such as water scarcity, soil degradation, energy transition challenges, and lack of effective policy coordination. Therefore, based on the STELLA modeling platform, this study establishes a dynamic model of Hexi Corridor to simulate the dynamic interaction of food-energy-water (FEW) systems from 2010 to 2035, to examine the interconnections between the supply, demand, and interrelationship of these three types of resources. The results show that: (1) Compared with 2010, the supply of food in the Hexi Corridor in 2035 exceeded the demand by 600,000 tons, and the energy exceeded about 20 million tons of standard coal. However, the water demand gap of Hexi Corridor will be about 142 million m³. (2) The energy-food correlation coefficient has decreased by approximately 0.01 as a result of advancements in agricultural technology. Additionally, the energy-water and water-food correlation coefficients have respectively increased to 0.02 and 2.06 due to population growth, which has resulted in an escalated demand for energy and food. (3) The sustainability of the comprehensive effects is the strongest, which indicates that the key to the sustainable development of the Hexi Corridor is to improve the technical level and rational utilization of policies to save resources. The findings would contribute to the formulation of data-based recommendations for sustainable resource management policies in the Hexi Corridor.