Predicting seasonal distribution and inter-seasonal migration corridors for three subspecies of common minke whales

Abstract

The broad-scale seasonal distribution of baleen whales plays a critical role in linking marine ecosystems but also increases their exposure to diverse threats across their range. Effective conservation of these species requires temporally and spatially explicit knowledge of their migratory routes and distribution patterns, yet such information remains scarce globally. This study addresses this challenge for common minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata). We first collected distribution data and associated environmental variables for common minke whales and then constructed species distribution models (SDMs) for its three subspecies across four seasons. Based on SDM predictions, key summer foraging and winter breeding habitats were identified. By incorporating autumn and spring habitat suitability indices as cost layers, connectivity analysis was used to delineate inter-seasonal migration corridors (summer to winter, winter to summer). Results indicate that environmental drivers of minke whale distribution vary among subspecies and across seasons, highlighting the importance of incorporating finer taxonomic units and temporal scales in SDM research. Suitable habitats and migration corridors are primarily located in coastal waters, where existing marine protected areas provide limited coverage, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Therefore, future conservation efforts should prioritize these areas. There are some seasonal variations in minke whale suitable habitats and migratory corridors, emphasizing the need for dynamic management strategies. This study provides critical conservation insights for common minke whales and offers a methodological framework applicable to other highly migratory marine species.