Routes to extreme events in forced-transmission eco-epidemic model: A dynamical-systems perspective

IF 3.4 2区数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED

Applied Mathematics and Computation Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI:10.1016/j.amc.2025.129619

V.R. Saiparasad , B. Kaviya , D.V. Senthilkumar , V.K. Chandrasekar

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

We employ a seasonally forced eco-epidemiological predator–prey model to investigate how periodic transmission shapes population dynamics and rare outbreaks. Through numerical simulations supported by bifurcation diagrams, Lyapunov-exponent spectra, and fractal-dimension analysis, we identify transitions between periodic, chaotic, and intermittent extreme-event regimes as forcing amplitude and frequency vary. A rigorous extreme-value framework, combining Generalized Pareto Peak Over Threshold (POT) fits of threshold exceedances with Gamma-distributed Inter-Spike-Interval (ISI) analysis, confirms that both amplitude and temporal outliers are accurately captured. Results indicate that high-frequency forcing enhances chaotic irregularity while inhibiting extreme peaks, whereas low-frequency forcing promotes sporadic large-amplitude events. Global elasticity indices under ±20% parameter perturbations reveal that these dynamical regimes persist under ecological uncertainty. These findings highlight the pivotal role of seasonality in disease-driven ecological dynamics and offer quantitative tools for forecasting and mitigating rare outbreaks.

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强迫传播生态流行病模型中极端事件的路径：动态系统视角

我们采用季节性强迫生态流行病学捕食者-猎物模型来研究周期性传播如何影响种群动态和罕见疫情。通过分岔图、李雅普诺夫指数谱和分形维数分析支持的数值模拟，我们确定了随着强迫幅度和频率的变化，周期性、混沌和间歇性极端事件制度之间的转变。一个严格的极值框架，结合了阈值超出的广义帕累托峰值（POT）拟合和伽马分布峰间间隔（ISI）分析，证实了振幅和时间异常值都被准确捕获。结果表明，高频强迫增强了混沌不规律性，抑制了极端峰值，而低频强迫促进了零星的大振幅事件。在±20%参数扰动下的全局弹性指数表明，这些动态机制在生态不确定性下持续存在。这些发现突出了季节性在疾病驱动的生态动力学中的关键作用，并为预测和减轻罕见疫情提供了定量工具。

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来源期刊

Applied Mathematics and Computation 数学-应用数学

CiteScore

7.90

自引率

10.00%

发文量

755

审稿时长

36 days

期刊介绍： Applied Mathematics and Computation addresses work at the interface between applied mathematics, numerical computation, and applications of systems – oriented ideas to the physical, biological, social, and behavioral sciences, and emphasizes papers of a computational nature focusing on new algorithms, their analysis and numerical results. In addition to presenting research papers, Applied Mathematics and Computation publishes review articles and single–topics issues.