Relationship between estimated pulse wave velocity trajectories and cardiovascular disease risk in patients with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome stages 0-3.

Abstract

Background and aims: The incidence of cardiovascular events is markedly elevated in individuals diagnosed with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome. This study aims to examine the association between alterations in estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV) over time and the onset of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with early CKM stages.

Methods and results: This study included 6788 individuals with repeated ePWV measurements from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Participants were categorized into four ePWV trajectory groups using group-based trajectory modeling: low, moderate-low, moderate-high, and high. The association between ePWV trajectories and CVD risk was assessed using Cox regression models. In comparison to the low ePWV group as the reference, the hazard ratios (HRs) with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for the moderate-low, moderate-high, and high ePWV groups were 1.287 (1.042-1.590), 1.891 (1.453-2.462), and 2.400 (1.660-3.469) for CVD, respectively. Additionally, the incorporation of ePWV trajectories to the basic risk model resulted in improved CVD risk prediction as indicated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, as well as improved risk reclassification as measured by net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

Conclusions: In middle-aged and older people with early CKM stages, elevated trajectories of ePWV are significantly associated with an increased risk of CVD. Monitoring ePWV over time may offer a valuable tool for early cardiovascular risk assessment and prevention in this population.