Framing the meat consumption transition: A statistical learning approach to explore the factors shaping young adults' food choices in Germany and Italy

Abstract

This study examines the factors driving changes in meat consumption among young adults in Germany and Italy—two high-income countries that, despite their distinct culinary traditions, have seen a convergence in meat consumption levels in recent years. The research addresses two aims: to examine the role of environmental attitudes in shaping dietary choices and to explore the impact of socio-demographic factors on meat-consumption patterns. The analysis employs the General Ecological Behavior (GEB) scale, a robust tool that provides a comprehensive assessment of pro-environmental attitudes as latent traits influencing behavior. It is complemented by the Random Forest, a machine learning algorithm that helps exploring complex, non-linear relationships among predictors. Data were collected from 580 respondents aged 18–30 through an online survey. The results reveal that environmental attitude is the strongest predictor of dietary habits, followed by household composition. German respondents, with higher environmental attitudes, were more likely to adopt vegetarian or vegan diets, whereas Italian respondents, influenced also by family dynamics, tended towards meat-based or flexitarian diets. These findings highlight the importance of gaining a deeper understanding of the underlying motivations behind the transition to a flexitarian diet, which could serve as a model for the future of meat consumption in Europe.