Public opinion on civil war in the USA as of mid-2024: findings from a nationally representative survey.

IF 2.4 3区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Injury Epidemiology Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI:10.1186/s40621-025-00594-w

Garen J Wintemute, Yueju Li, Mona A Wright, Andrew Crawford, Elizabeth A Tomsich

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Abstract

Background: In 2023, Wave 2 of an annual, nationally representative longitudinal survey found a concerning level of agreement that civil war was likely in the USA and, among those who agreed, widespread belief that civil war was needed. This study updates those findings to 2024 and explores respondents' predicted involvement in such a conflict.

Methods: Findings are from Wave 3, conducted May 23-June 14, 2024; participants were members of Ipsos KnowledgePanel. All respondents to prior waves who remained in KnowledgePanel were invited to participate; to facilitate comparison with 2023 findings, this analysis is restricted to Wave 3 respondents who had responded to both Waves 1 and 2. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions and adjusted prevalence differences.

Results: The Wave 3 completion rate was 88.4% overall and 91.6% for respondents to Waves 1 and 2; there were 8185 respondents in the analytic sample. After weighting, half the sample was female (50.6%, 95% CI 49.1%, 52.1%); the weighted mean (SD) age was 50.8 (16.4) years. Few respondents agreed strongly or very strongly that "in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States" (6.5%, 95% CI 5.7%, 7.3%) or that "the United States needs a civil war to set things right" (3.6%, 95% CI 3.0%, 4.2%). These prevalences were higher among subsets of respondents previously associated with increased support for and willingness to commit political violence. Of the small minority (3.7%, 95% CI 3.1%, 4.3%) who thought it very or extremely likely that they would be combatants, 44.5% (95% CI 36.5%, 52.6%) reported that they would convert to not likely if this were urged by family members; 23-31% were open to persuasion by friends, respected religious leaders, elected officials, and the media.

Conclusions: In mid-2024, the expectation that civil war was likely and the belief that it was needed were uncommon and were unchanged from 2023. Those expecting to participate as combatants reported openness to change in response to input from many sources. These findings can help guide prevention efforts.

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截至2024年中期，美国民众对内战的看法：一项全国代表性调查的结果。

背景：2023年，一项具有全国代表性的年度纵向调查的第二波发现，美国可能发生内战的共识程度令人担忧，而在认同这一观点的人中，普遍认为内战是必要的。这项研究将这些发现更新到2024年，并探讨了受访者对这种冲突的预测参与。方法：研究结果来自第三波，于2024年5月23日至6月14日进行；参与者是益普索知识小组的成员。所有前几次浪潮中仍留在KnowledgePanel的受访者都被邀请参加；为了便于与2023年的调查结果进行比较，本分析仅限于对第1波和第2波都有回应的第3波受访者。结果以加权比例和调整后的患病率差异表示。结果：Wave 3的完成率为88.4%，Wave 1和Wave 2的完成率为91.6%；分析样本中有8185名受访者。加权后，半数样本为女性（50.6%,95% CI 49.1%, 52.1%）；加权平均（SD）年龄为50.8（16.4）岁。很少有受访者强烈或非常强烈地同意“在未来几年内，美国将发生内战”（6.5%,95% CI 5.7%, 7.3%）或“美国需要一场内战来纠正错误”（3.6%,95% CI 3.0%, 4.2%）。这些流行率在以前与越来越多地支持和愿意实施政治暴力有关的应答者亚群中更高。在少数（3.7%，95%可信区间3.1%,4.3%）认为他们非常或极有可能成为战斗人员的人中，44.5%（95%可信区间36.5%,52.6%）报告说，如果家庭成员敦促他们，他们将不太可能转变为战斗人员；23-31%的人愿意接受朋友、受人尊敬的宗教领袖、民选官员和媒体的劝说。结论：在2024年中期，认为可能发生内战和认为有必要发生内战的预期并不常见，与2023年相比没有变化。那些期望以战斗员身份参加的人报告说，他们对来自许多来源的意见持开放态度，愿意改变。这些发现可以帮助指导预防工作。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Injury Epidemiology Medicine-Medicine (all)

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

4.50%

发文量

审稿时长

13 weeks

期刊介绍： Injury Epidemiology is dedicated to advancing the scientific foundation for injury prevention and control through timely publication and dissemination of peer-reviewed research. Injury Epidemiology aims to be the premier venue for communicating epidemiologic studies of unintentional and intentional injuries, including, but not limited to, morbidity and mortality from motor vehicle crashes, drug overdose/poisoning, falls, drowning, fires/burns, iatrogenic injury, suicide, homicide, assaults, and abuse. We welcome investigations designed to understand the magnitude, distribution, determinants, causes, prevention, diagnosis, treatment, prognosis, and outcomes of injuries in specific population groups, geographic regions, and environmental settings (e.g., home, workplace, transport, recreation, sports, and urban/rural). Injury Epidemiology has a special focus on studies generating objective and practical knowledge that can be translated into interventions to reduce injury morbidity and mortality on a population level. Priority consideration will be given to manuscripts that feature contemporary theories and concepts, innovative methods, and novel techniques as applied to injury surveillance, risk assessment, development and implementation of effective interventions, and program and policy evaluation.