Assessing the decarbonisation potential of light-duty vehicle fleet electrification in Brazil

IF 7.3 1区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2025.104895

Heinrich Gustave Herzog, Rodrigo Flora Calili, Maria Fatima Ludovico de Almeida

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Abstract

Electrification of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet is a key strategy for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from road transport segments. This study assesses the potential impact of electrifying Brazil’s LDV fleet by 2050, employing a prospective framework to build alternative decarbonisation scenarios. Through a comprehensive literature review on central research themes, this study identifies a significant research gap: the absence of an integrated framework combining foresight and forecasting approaches for assessing the decarbonisation potential of light-duty vehicle fleet electrification. Brazil’s unique position, with its high renewable energy share and established biofuel industry, presents a compelling case study for examining LDV fleet electrification pathways. The study develops a novel conceptual framework that leverages complementary methodological approaches to provide a detailed analysis of LDV fleet electrification pathways and their effects on decarbonisation, contributing to the development of Brazil’s energy transition strategies.

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评估巴西轻型车队电气化的脱碳潜力

轻型车辆（LDV）车队的电气化是减少道路运输部门温室气体排放的关键战略。本研究评估了到2050年巴西LDV车队电气化的潜在影响，采用了一个前瞻性框架来构建替代脱碳方案。通过对中心研究主题的全面文献综述，本研究确定了一个重大的研究缺口：缺乏一个结合远见和预测方法的综合框架，以评估轻型车辆车队电气化的脱碳潜力。巴西的独特地位，其高可再生能源份额和成熟的生物燃料产业，为研究LDV车队电气化途径提供了一个引人注目的案例研究。该研究开发了一个新的概念框架，利用互补的方法方法，对LDV车队电气化途径及其对脱碳的影响进行了详细分析，为巴西能源转型战略的发展做出了贡献。

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来源期刊

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

9.20%

发文量

314

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution. We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.