The cointegration of Polish timber sales channels: Patterns and implications

Abstract

This study examines the cointegration of timber prices across key sales channels in the Polish timber market, with a focus on competitive dynamics and international integration. Poland’s State Forests National Forest Holding, managing 82% of the country’s forested areas and providing over 95% industrial timber, has a near-monopoly structure. Timber sales are facilitated through three main channels: PL-D, the e-Drewno System, and e-Drewno Individual Auctions. Using cointegration analysis, we assess the connection between these channels and European timber markets. Our findings show limited cointegration in the PL-D and e-Drewno System channels, suggesting they are insulated from international price fluctuations due to restricted access requirements based on purchase history. Conversely, e-Drewno Individual Auctions – open to all without entry restrictions – demonstrate substantial cointegration with other European markets, indicating a higher level of competitiveness and responsiveness to external price trends. In addition, aggregate prices across all channels exhibit moderate cointegration with international markets, reflecting both price stability and adaptation to broader market trends. These findings reveal structural limitations in the Polish timber market: established firms benefit from stable pricing in restricted channels, while new entrants face higher costs in the more volatile, open channels. Policy implications suggest the need for reforms to enhance market inclusivity and prepare for potential supply constraints under changing environmental and regulatory conditions. This research highlights the critical role of channel-specific structures in shaping market behavior and influencing international integration in the timber industry.