Development and validation of prognostic nomogram for overall survival in canine multicentric lymphoma: a retrospective study.

IF 2.3 2区农林科学 Q1 VETERINARY SCIENCES

BMC Veterinary Research Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI:10.1186/s12917-025-04857-y

Zeyun Zhu, Zixiang Lin, Jun Dong, Di Zhang

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Abstract

This study aimed to develop and validate prognostic nomogram for predicting 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month overall survival in canine multicentric lymphoma. A total of 163 cases from January 2019 to December 2024 were used as a training set, and 50 cases from January 2017 to January 2019 served as a validation set. Predictors were identified using LASSO regression and univariate/multivariate Cox regression analyses, leading to the development of the nomogram: ATRAS2, incorporating age, red blood cell count at diagnosis, changes in red blood cell count after chemotherapy, and albumin-to-globulin ratio. Internal validation showed areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for ATRAS2 of 0.991, 0.932, and 0.919 for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year overall survival, respectively. Temporal validation yielded concordance indices of 0.708, 0.701 and 0.783 for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year overall survival with calibration plots demonstrating strong agreement between predicted and observed overall survival. Decision curve analysis further confirmed the clinical utility of both models for 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month overall survival. The nomogram offers a tool for personalized survival evaluation of canine multicentric lymphoma.

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犬多中心淋巴瘤总生存预后图的发展和验证：一项回顾性研究。

本研究旨在开发和验证预测犬多中心淋巴瘤3个月、6个月和12个月总生存期的预后nomogram。以2019年1月至2024年12月的163例病例作为训练集，2017年1月至2019年1月的50例病例作为验证集。使用LASSO回归和单变量/多变量Cox回归分析确定预测因素，从而得出nomogram: ATRAS2，包含年龄、诊断时红细胞计数、化疗后红细胞计数变化和白蛋白-球蛋白比。内部验证显示，3个月、6个月和1年总生存期ATRAS2的受试者工作特征曲线下面积分别为0.991、0.932和0.919。时间验证显示，3个月、6个月和1年总生存期的一致性指数分别为0.708、0.701和0.783，校准图显示预测总生存期和观察总生存期之间的一致性很强。决策曲线分析进一步证实了两种模型在3个月、6个月和12个月总生存期的临床应用。nomogram为犬多中心淋巴瘤患者的个性化生存评估提供了一种工具。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

BMC Veterinary Research VETERINARY SCIENCES-

CiteScore

4.80

自引率

3.80%

发文量

420

审稿时长

3-6 weeks

期刊介绍： BMC Veterinary Research is an open access, peer-reviewed journal that considers articles on all aspects of veterinary science and medicine, including the epidemiology, diagnosis, prevention and treatment of medical conditions of domestic, companion, farm and wild animals, as well as the biomedical processes that underlie their health.