Oil price swings and inflationary echoes: The impact of oil market shocks on consumer and producer prices in Europe and the U.S.

IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
Joana Gago, Sofia Vale
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the impact of oil price fluctuations on inflation in France, Germany, Portugal, and the United States. Employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model, we analyze the effects of oil supply shocks, global aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks on headline and core inflation as well as the Producer Price Index. Our findings indicate that oil market shocks have non-persistent inflationary effects, with producer prices showing greater volatility compared to consumer prices. The most significant effects stem from oil-specific demand shocks. The study highlights the need for central banks to consider various inflation metrics and the adoption of renewable energies to mitigate the instability caused by oil price swings. The response of each economy to the shocks differs from consumer price and producer price perspectives, revealing the importance of analyzing distinct economic realities and using different inflation measures for more robust conclusions.
油价波动与通胀呼应:石油市场冲击对欧美消费者和生产者价格的影响
本文实证研究了油价波动对法国、德国、葡萄牙和美国通货膨胀的影响。采用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,我们分析了石油供应冲击、全球总需求冲击和石油特定需求冲击对总体通胀和核心通胀以及生产者价格指数的影响。我们的研究结果表明,石油市场冲击具有非持续性通胀效应,与消费者价格相比,生产者价格表现出更大的波动性。最显著的影响来自石油特定需求的冲击。该研究强调,各国央行需要考虑各种通胀指标,并采用可再生能源来缓解油价波动造成的不稳定。每个经济体对冲击的反应不同于消费者价格和生产者价格的观点,这揭示了分析不同的经济现实和使用不同的通胀指标以获得更有力结论的重要性。
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来源期刊
Resources Policy
Resources Policy ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-
CiteScore
13.40
自引率
23.50%
发文量
602
审稿时长
69 days
期刊介绍: Resources Policy is an international journal focused on the economics and policy aspects of mineral and fossil fuel extraction, production, and utilization. It targets individuals in academia, government, and industry. The journal seeks original research submissions analyzing public policy, economics, social science, geography, and finance in the fields of mining, non-fuel minerals, energy minerals, fossil fuels, and metals. Mineral economics topics covered include mineral market analysis, price analysis, project evaluation, mining and sustainable development, mineral resource rents, resource curse, mineral wealth and corruption, mineral taxation and regulation, strategic minerals and their supply, and the impact of mineral development on local communities and indigenous populations. The journal specifically excludes papers with agriculture, forestry, or fisheries as their primary focus.
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