{"title":"Oil price swings and inflationary echoes: The impact of oil market shocks on consumer and producer prices in Europe and the U.S.","authors":"Joana Gago, Sofia Vale","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105667","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper empirically investigates the impact of oil price fluctuations on inflation in France, Germany, Portugal, and the United States. Employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model, we analyze the effects of oil supply shocks, global aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks on headline and core inflation as well as the Producer Price Index. Our findings indicate that oil market shocks have non-persistent inflationary effects, with producer prices showing greater volatility compared to consumer prices. The most significant effects stem from oil-specific demand shocks. The study highlights the need for central banks to consider various inflation metrics and the adoption of renewable energies to mitigate the instability caused by oil price swings. The response of each economy to the shocks differs from consumer price and producer price perspectives, revealing the importance of analyzing distinct economic realities and using different inflation measures for more robust conclusions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"107 ","pages":"Article 105667"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Resources Policy","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420725002090","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"0","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper empirically investigates the impact of oil price fluctuations on inflation in France, Germany, Portugal, and the United States. Employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model, we analyze the effects of oil supply shocks, global aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks on headline and core inflation as well as the Producer Price Index. Our findings indicate that oil market shocks have non-persistent inflationary effects, with producer prices showing greater volatility compared to consumer prices. The most significant effects stem from oil-specific demand shocks. The study highlights the need for central banks to consider various inflation metrics and the adoption of renewable energies to mitigate the instability caused by oil price swings. The response of each economy to the shocks differs from consumer price and producer price perspectives, revealing the importance of analyzing distinct economic realities and using different inflation measures for more robust conclusions.
期刊介绍:
Resources Policy is an international journal focused on the economics and policy aspects of mineral and fossil fuel extraction, production, and utilization. It targets individuals in academia, government, and industry. The journal seeks original research submissions analyzing public policy, economics, social science, geography, and finance in the fields of mining, non-fuel minerals, energy minerals, fossil fuels, and metals. Mineral economics topics covered include mineral market analysis, price analysis, project evaluation, mining and sustainable development, mineral resource rents, resource curse, mineral wealth and corruption, mineral taxation and regulation, strategic minerals and their supply, and the impact of mineral development on local communities and indigenous populations. The journal specifically excludes papers with agriculture, forestry, or fisheries as their primary focus.