Quantifying the trade-offs in global energy transitions: How economic growth undermines carbon targets and sustainable surplus energy

Abstract

This study introduces the Sustainable Worldwide Energy Transition (SWET) model to assess the feasibility of global energy transitions under varying economic growth scenarios. The model uniquely incorporates energy costs for ecosystem maintenance, carbon dioxide removal, and renewable infrastructure deployment. By testing 21 different situations that mix three IEA energy plans and seven global GDP growth rates (from −3 % to +3 % each year), the findings show that continuous economic growth cannot align with the goals of the Paris Agreement. For example, a 3 % annual GDP growth scenario results in cumulative carbon emissions exceeding 2000 GtCO₂eq by 2060—far above the 2 °C budget. In degrowth scenarios, sustainable surplus energy per capita drops to as low as 15–25 GJ/year, which is at minimum living energy thresholds. The findings indicate that economic growth, rather than technology rollout speed, is the primary driver of long-term carbon emissions. To maintain climate safety and social viability, a managed reduction in economic throughput is necessary. This study introduces a novel framework for quantifying global energy transition trade-offs and calls for prioritizing climate policy over conventional growth metrics.