Risk factors for fatal road traffic accidents in Ecuador

Abstract

We analysed data from the National Traffic Agency (ANT) of traffic accidents between 2017 and 2022 using a sample size of 76,300. We performed a logistic regression to evaluate the predictive factors for fatal traffic accidents. The results showed that women had a lower probability of dying than men, and the probability of fatality was reduced on weekdays and in urban zones between 6:00 and 12:00 and when the affected people were aged under 60 years. The risks of death among passengers and pedestrians, accidents occurring during holidays, and accidents involving other types of vehicles were significantly higher compared to the counterparts. Depending on the type of accident, the risk of death increased in run-over, hit, crash, lane deviation, and overturning accidents; meanwhile, it decreased in passenger drop-off, collision, and friction accidents. We identified different factors that were associated with higher road accident fatalities, such as the hour of the day, zone, time of the week, sex, and age, which were significant factors that matched in each year of the study. The results suggest relevant patterns that require the enforcement of traffic regulations. Further controls regarding speeding, seat belt use, and helmet use for drivers and passengers to reduce injuries and fatalities.