Decoding carbon emissions in China's marine Fisheries: Trends, drivers, and pathways to sustainability

Abstract

The sustainable development of marine fisheries is essential for China to achieve its carbon peaking goals. Balancing carbon emission reduction with the need to maintain fish production and improve sustainable management presents a significant challenge. Current research lacks comprehensive analyses of the time-space evolution of carbon emissions in relation to fishery production and their driving mechanisms. This study examined China's marine fishery development over 44 years, focusing on regional carbon emissions and intensity associated with various operation methods over the past 20 years. It also identified the driving mechanisms and contributions of the operational structure to carbon emissions. The findings revealed that while fishery production grew at an annual growth rate of 1.82 %, carbon emissions rose slower (1.26 %). The catch scale is the most critical positive driver of carbon emissions increasing (53.36 %). Spatially, southern China exhibited higher emissions compared to northern regions, with disparities in emissions widening due to operational structures and differences in regional characteristics and reduction potential. The carbon intensity of China's marine fisheries per unit of production has been significantly reduced, contributing 24.70 % of the world's seafood with only 20.32 % of CO₂ over the past ten years. Outlawing energy-intensive capture methods and reducing energy consumption in mariculture have largely contributed to the reduction in emissions (−58.44 % and −37.44 %, respectively). Although intensive production systems in mariculture contribute a lot of seafood at the same emission level, they may also generate externalities such as biodiversity loss, habitat simplification and ecosystem degradation, so the need for an integrated ecosystem-based management approach such as integrated multi-trophic aquaculture should be more emphasized at this time in order to strike a balance between combating climate change and maintaining ecological sustainability. This study highlights the importance of balanced regional development, restructuring operations and optimizing fishing methods to ensure food security while advancing broader sustainable development goals. The recommendations are intended to guide the low-carbon and sustainable development of China's marine fisheries, consistent with environmental and economic goals.