Implications of predator species richness in terms of zoonotic spillover transmission of filovirus diseases in Africa.

IF 1.9 4区医学 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI:10.1093/trstmh/traf065

Taehee Chang, Sung-Il Cho, Jong-Yil Chai, Kyung-Duk Min

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: A rich biodiversity of predators has been suggested to suppress the risk of zoonotic spillover by regulating prey abundance and behavior. We evaluated the association between predator species richness and spillover events of Ebolavirus and Marburgvirus in Africa.

Methods: Historical records of filovirus outbreaks, along with ecological, geographical and socioeconomic factors, were considered in this environmental study. We used the maximum entropy approach (Maxent modeling) and stacked species distribution models to estimate predator species richness. Logistic regression analyses accounting for spatiotemporal autocorrelations were conducted to assess the association between predator species richness and spillover risk, adjusting for potential confounders.

Results: Higher species richness of certain predators-the order Strigiformes and the family Colubridae-was associated with lower risks of Ebolavirus spillover, but not with Marburgvirus spillover. The third quartile (OR=0.02, 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI]=0.00-0.84) and fourth quartile (OR=0.07, 95% BCI=0.00-0.42) of Strigiformes species richness, as well as the third quartile (OR=0.15, 95% BCI=0.01-0.73) and fourth quartile (OR=0.53, 95% BCI=0.03-0.85) of Colubridae species richness, were significantly associated with reduced odds of Ebolavirus index cases.

Conclusion: These findings support a possible role for predator species richness in suppressing zoonotic spillover.

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捕食者物种丰富度对非洲丝状病毒疾病人畜共患外溢传播的影响。

背景：丰富的捕食者生物多样性被认为可以通过调节猎物的丰度和行为来抑制人畜共患病的溢出风险。我们评估了捕食者物种丰富度与非洲埃博拉病毒和马尔堡病毒外溢事件之间的关系。方法：本环境研究考虑了丝状病毒暴发的历史记录，以及生态、地理和社会经济因素。我们使用最大熵方法（Maxent模型）和堆叠物种分布模型来估计捕食者物种丰富度。考虑时空自相关性的Logistic回归分析评估了捕食者物种丰富度与溢出风险之间的关系，并对潜在的混杂因素进行了调整。结果：某些捕食者的物种丰富度较高，如镜形目和colcolbridae，与埃博拉病毒外溢风险较低相关，但与马尔堡病毒外溢风险无关。第三四分位数（OR=0.02, 95%贝叶斯可信区间[BCI]=0.00-0.84）和第四四分位数（OR=0.07, 95% BCI=0.00-0.42）以及第三四分位数（OR=0.15, 95% BCI=0.01-0.73）和第四四分位数（OR=0.53, 95% BCI=0.03-0.85）与埃博拉病毒指数病例的发生率降低显著相关。结论：这些发现支持了捕食者物种丰富度在抑制人畜共患病溢出中的可能作用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

4.00

自引率

9.10%

发文量

115

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene publishes authoritative and impactful original, peer-reviewed articles and reviews on all aspects of tropical medicine.