Global burden of gout and its changing trends and predictions in China: An analysis based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

IF 7.3 3区医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

Chinese Medical Journal Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI:10.1097/CM9.0000000000003631

Shuai Jin, Yuhan Wang, Shuangtong Yan, Xiaomin Fu, Xiaodong Hu, Zhaohui Lyu, Hongzhou Liu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Gout is a chronic disease primarily caused by elevated urate levels, severely affecting joint health. Its global distribution varies, and updated data for China are lacking. This study aimed to analyze the current burden and trends of gout globally and in China, examining the burden by gender, age, and risk factors while providing future predictions.

Methods: This descriptive epidemiological secondary analysis utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2021 study. Age-standardized incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates (ASDR) were used to assess the gout burden. Trends from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed across global regions, genders, and sociodemographic index (SDI) levels. The burden in China was further examined by gender, age, and associated risk factors. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict future trends. Gout burden in China and the United States was compared.

Results: In 2021, gout affected 57 million people globally, with 9.4 million new cases and 1.75 million DALYs. From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR increased by 17.2%, 21.9%, and 21.3%, respectively. Males experienced a significantly higher burden, with greater ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR increasing with higher SDI levels. In China, male ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR were over 2.8 times those of females, and the burden increased with age. In 2021, 31.4% of gout-related DALYs in China were attributed to high body mass index and 7.6% to kidney dysfunction. Between 1990 and 2021, the high body mass index-related burden rose annually for both genders, while the kidney dysfunction-related burden remained stable. By 2050, the burden of gout in China is expected to continue increasing, with a slower rise in females and a decline in males after an initial increase. However, the overall burden will remain substantial. In comparison, the gout burden will be higher in the United States than in China.

Conclusions: Gout is becoming a significant health burden globally and in China, particularly among Chinese males and older individuals. With the aging population and lifestyle changes exacerbating the issue, effective strategies and measures are essential to prevent or reduce gout-related health issues.

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中国全球痛风负担及其变化趋势与预测——基于2021年全球疾病负担研究的分析

背景：痛风是一种主要由尿酸水平升高引起的慢性疾病，严重影响关节健康。它在全球的分布各不相同，而且缺乏中国的最新数据。本研究旨在分析目前全球和中国痛风的负担和趋势，按性别、年龄和风险因素检查负担，并提供未来预测。方法：这项描述性流行病学二次分析利用了全球疾病、损伤和风险因素负担（GBD） 2021研究的数据。使用年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、患病率（ASPR）和残疾调整生命年（DALYs）率（ASDR）来评估痛风负担。分析了1990年至2021年全球各地区、性别和社会人口指数（SDI）水平的趋势。中国的负担进一步通过性别、年龄和相关危险因素进行了检查。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测未来趋势。比较了中国和美国的痛风负担。结果：2021年，痛风影响了全球5700万人，其中有940万新病例和175万DALYs。1990 - 2021年，ASIR、ASPR和ASDR分别增长了17.2%、21.9%和21.3%。男性的负担明显更高，ASIR、ASPR和ASDR随着SDI水平的升高而增加。在中国，男性ASIR、ASPR和ASDR是女性的2.8倍以上，且负担随年龄增长而增加。2021年，中国31.4%与痛风相关的DALYs归因于高体重指数，7.6%归因于肾功能不全。在1990年至2021年期间，男女高体重指数相关的负担每年都在上升，而肾功能障碍相关的负担保持稳定。到2050年，中国的痛风负担预计将继续增加，女性的增加速度将放缓，男性在最初增加后将下降。但是，总的负担仍然很大。相比之下，美国的痛风负担将高于中国。结论：痛风正在成为全球和中国的重大健康负担，特别是在中国男性和老年人中。随着人口老龄化和生活方式的改变加剧了这一问题，有效的策略和措施对于预防或减少痛风相关的健康问题至关重要。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Chinese Medical Journal 医学-医学：内科

CiteScore

9.80

自引率

4.90%

发文量

19245

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： The Chinese Medical Journal (CMJ) is published semimonthly in English by the Chinese Medical Association, and is a peer reviewed general medical journal for all doctors, researchers, and health workers regardless of their medical specialty or type of employment. Established in 1887, it is the oldest medical periodical in China and is distributed worldwide. The journal functions as a window into China’s medical sciences and reflects the advances and progress in China’s medical sciences and technology. It serves the objective of international academic exchange. The journal includes Original Articles, Editorial, Review Articles, Medical Progress, Brief Reports, Case Reports, Viewpoint, Clinical Exchange, Letter,and News,etc. CMJ is abstracted or indexed in many databases including Biological Abstracts, Chemical Abstracts, Index Medicus/Medline, Science Citation Index (SCI), Current Contents, Cancerlit, Health Plan & Administration, Embase, Social Scisearch, Aidsline, Toxline, Biocommercial Abstracts, Arts and Humanities Search, Nuclear Science Abstracts, Water Resources Abstracts, Cab Abstracts, Occupation Safety & Health, etc. In 2007, the impact factor of the journal by SCI is 0.636, and the total citation is 2315.