Computational modeling of infectious diseases: insights from network-based simulations on measles.

Abstract

Background: Computational modelling of disease spread is crucial for understanding the dynamics of infectious outbreaks and assessing the effectiveness of control measures. In particular, network-based models for disease spreading offer detailed, granular insights into heterogeneous interactions and enable dynamic simulation of intervention strategies. Therefore, they offer valuable insights into the factors influencing disease spread, enabling public health authorities to develop effective containment strategies. Vaccination is among the most impactful interventions in controlling disease spread and has proven essential in preventing the spread of infectious diseases such as measles. However, recent trends indicate a concerning decline in the fraction of vaccinated individuals in various populations, increasing the risk of outbreaks.

Methods: In this study, we utilize computational simulations on graph-based models to analyze how vaccination affects the spread of infectious diseases. By representing populations as networks in which individuals (nodes) are connected by potential spread pathways (edges), we simulate different vaccination coverage scenarios and assess their impact on disease spread. Our simulations incorporate high and low vaccination coverage to reflect real-world trends and explore various conditions under which disease spread can be effectively blocked.

Results: The results demonstrate that adequate vaccination coverage is critical for halting outbreaks, with a marked reduction in disease spread observed as the fraction of vaccinated individuals increases. Conversely, insufficient vaccination rates lead to widespread outbreaks, underscoring the importance of maintaining high vaccination levels to achieve herd immunity and prevent resurgence. These findings highlight the vital role of vaccination as a preventative tool and emphasize the potential risks posed by declining vaccination rates.

Conclusion: This study provides a deeper understanding of how vaccination strategies can mitigate the spread of infectious diseases and serves as a reminder of the importance of maintaining robust immunization programs to protect public health.