[Spatial Temporal Coupling and Influencing Factors of Land-use Carbon Emissions and Ecosystem Service Value in the Yellow River Basin].

Abstract

The dramatic changes in land use caused by human economic activities have a profound impact on carbon emissions and ecosystem service value （ESV）. In order to explore the evolution characteristics of carbon emissions and ESV on the spatial and temporal scales， based on the land use data of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020， this study used spatial autocorrelation and multivariate Logit regression models to study the spatial and temporal characteristics and spatial correlation of total carbon emissions and ESV in counties of the Yellow River Basin， then to explore the influencing factors of spatial correlation. The research findings were as follows： ① In the past 20 years， the total amount of land use carbon emissions in the basin has shown an overall growth trend， and the increasing counties were concentrated in energy-rich areas such as Inner Mongolia， Ningxia， and northern Shaanxi. The total amount of ESV increased first and then decreased， and the high value counties were mainly distributed on the edge of the Yellow River Basin， among which Qumalai County in Qinghai Province had the most ESV. The low value counties of ESV were mainly located in the economically active urban agglomerations such as the Shandong Peninsula Region， Central Plains Region， Guanzhong Plains Region， and cities along the yellow river in Ningxia. The lowest value of ESV has always been located in Xi'an. ② There was a spatial negative correlation between total carbon emissions and total ESV. The number of counties with high carbon emissions and high ESV has been increasing， mainly distributed in southern Inner Mongolia， eastern Ningxia， and northern Shaanxi， which was related to the location near the Yellow River and energy development. The double low type was mainly located in the gully area of the Loess Plateau， which is connected to the strip from the east and west. The low-high class was contiguously distributed in Qinghai， Sichuan， and western Gansu， and some were island-like distributed around the double-low class. The number of high-low classes was increasing year by year， mainly located in the core city area. ③ In low ESV counties， regions with better economic development and higher population were more likely to increase their carbon emissions. Taking the low carbon emissions from land use as a reference， the per capita GDP， energy use efficiency， and rainfall were significantly negatively correlated with the high-high and high-low categories. This indicates that most counties with high carbon emissions had relatively dense populations and less rainfall， resulting in higher energy dependence. Additionally， there was a positive correlation between low-high class areas and total population. When located in areas with low land use carbon emissions， areas with higher ESV values tended to have more a concentrated population distribution. The increase in land reclamation rate may encroach on forests and grasslands that can provide higher ecosystem services， reducing the value of regional ecosystem services. The research findings have certain reference significance for ecological protection and high-quality development decision-making in the Yellow River Basin.