[Spatial Spillover Effect and Driving Factors of High-quality Energy Development in China].

Abstract

High-quality energy development is an important part of high-quality economic development， which is important for realizing the 'dual-carbon' goal and combating climate change. Here， we construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for high-quality energy development in five dimensions： innovation， coordination， greenness， openness， and sharing， and measure China's high-quality energy development level from 2011 to 2021 based on the entropy method. Kernel density estimation， spatial autocorrelation， and spatial Markov chains are used to characterize the spatial and temporal evolution of the level of high-quality energy development， and the driving factors are explored with the help of Tobit regression models. The results show that： ① China's high-quality energy development level demonstrated an upward trend in fluctuation， but China's high-quality energy development level overall was still at a low level and tended to cluster. ② China's energy quality development level presented 'high south and low north' characteristics， and in the spatial distribution of the phenomenon of significant spatial correlation， the spatial spillover effect was obvious. The traditional Markov chain probability transfer matrix showed that the type transfer of the high-quality development level of provincial energy had stability， and there was a phenomenon of 'club convergence' . The spatial Markov chain probability transfer matrix showed that the Matthew effect existed in the high-quality development level of provincial energy， indicating that geographical factors played an important role in the dynamic evolution of high-quality energy development. ③ There was spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the effects of the drivers of the level of high-quality energy development. Economic development level， education level， technology level， and environmental regulation level were the key factors to promote high-quality energy development， while population structure and transportation infrastructure level inhibited high-quality energy development. The drivers of the level of high-quality energy development in each province and the extent to which they influenced it were characterized as 'province-specific'.