[Multi-scenario Simulation of Production-Living-Ecological Space and Carbon Storage Assessment in Ecological Transition Zone： A Case Study of Gansu Province].

Abstract

Gansu Province is an important ecological security barrier and ecological transition zone in the Chinese ecological security pattern. The study of its production-living-ecological space （PLES） transformation and its carbon storage effect is of great significance for realizing space optimization and regional sustainable development from a low-carbon perspective. Based on the land use data of Gansu Province in 2000， 2010， and 2020， we measured the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the PLES. The PLUS model was used to simulate the PLES in 2030 and 2060 under the three scenarios of natural evolution， economic development， and ecological priority， and the InVEST model was used to calculate its carbon storage. The results show that： ① The ecological space occupied the largest proportion and had the widest distribution. The living space occupied the smallest proportion， showing a scattered distribution， with more in the south than in the north. The production space was mostly distributed near the living space. The transformation of PLES was more drastic， mainly the transformation between "forest-field-grass-sand". ② The spatial distribution of PLES in the three scenarios in 2030 and 2060 was basically similar to that in the historical period. Ecological space decreased under the natural evolution and economic development scenarios and increased under the ecological protection scenarios. ③ From 2000 to 2020， carbon stocks showed a "U" trend of first decreasing and then increasing in time. The change of carbon storage in both the natural evolution and economic development scenarios showed a "U" trend of first decreasing and then increasing， while the carbon storage in the ecological protection scenarios showed a continuous increasing trend， and the carbon storage was the highest among the three scenarios. ④ The high-value and hot-spot areas of carbon storage were concentrated in the Qilian Mountains， Gannan Plateau， and Longnan Mountains， while the low-value and cold-spot areas were mainly distributed in the desert and Gobi areas of the Hexi Corridor. In all three scenarios， the spatial distribution of carbon stocks in 2060 was more balanced than that in 2020.