[Delinquent despite aftercare? - An explorative analysis of the recidivism of former forensic patients acc. to Sect. 63 of the German legal code in specialized outpatient treatment].

Abstract

To analyze the recidivism of forensic psychiatric patients in outpatient aftercare. The study investigated the type and the time until recidivism, as well as the correlation between personal risk factors and the rate of recidivism.Descriptive evaluation of the distribution of offense types basing on catamnestic data from 122 persons from a Bavarian forensic aftercare outpatient clinic. Survival time analyses used the Kaplan-Meier method, in which known risk factors were included as potential predictors.In the mean observation period of 34 months, 86% showed no new delinquency. Property and drug-related offenses dominated. Only gender, marital status and (as a statistical trend) the main offense showed differential relations with the rate of recidivism.Recidivism in this group is rare. Known risk factors appear to be of little use in predicting reoffending; dynamic aspects should be considered.