Inside the ‘Black Box’ of the Nexus Between Economic Conditions and Crime: Can the Relationship Be Mitigated?

IF 1.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Kyklos Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI:10.1111/kykl.12459
Alban Asllani, Eleftherios Goulas, Socrates Karidis
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study examines how the impact of economic conditions on criminal activity is mitigated by the presence of labour market policies and that of a sizeable shadow economy. The analysis reveals a positive relationship between economic downturns and property crime, supporting the well-documented idea that economic hardships intensify criminal activity. Most importantly, however, we find that the relationship is mitigated when active labour market policies, as well as labour training, are employed by enhancing skills and productivity, thus lowering incentives for criminal behaviour. Passive policies, on the other hand, also weaken the link, primarily through the income effect, with their effectiveness being increased in the presence of high levels of the shadow economy. High levels of both kinds of labour market policies and of the shadow economy significantly reduce crime, though additional investment in those shows different returns. These findings suggest that a comprehensive approach is required when effective crime reduction is considered during economic downturns, accounting for both formal and informal sector dynamics.

经济状况与犯罪关系的“黑箱”:这种关系能被缓和吗?
本研究考察了经济状况对犯罪活动的影响是如何通过劳动力市场政策和规模可观的影子经济的存在来减轻的。该分析揭示了经济衰退与财产犯罪之间的正相关关系,支持了有充分证据的观点,即经济困难会加剧犯罪活动。然而,最重要的是,我们发现,当积极的劳动力市场政策以及劳动力培训被用于提高技能和生产率,从而降低犯罪行为的动机时,这种关系就会得到缓解。另一方面,消极的政策也削弱了这种联系,主要是通过收入效应,在影子经济水平较高的情况下,这些政策的有效性得到提高。高水平的劳动力市场政策和影子经济都能显著减少犯罪,尽管在这些方面的额外投资会带来不同的回报。这些发现表明,在经济衰退期间考虑有效减少犯罪时,需要采取综合方法,同时考虑到正式和非正式部门的动态。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Kyklos
Kyklos ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
10.50%
发文量
38
期刊介绍: KYKLOS views economics as a social science and as such favours contributions dealing with issues relevant to contemporary society, as well as economic policy applications. Since its inception nearly 60 years ago, KYKLOS has earned a worldwide reputation for publishing a broad range of articles from international scholars on real world issues. KYKLOS encourages unorthodox, original approaches to topical economic and social issues with a multinational application, and promises to give fresh insights into topics of worldwide interest
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